No Cut, No Plan, No Clue — and Some Fake GDP

I Lost Everything in 2008. This Feels Worse.

Jun 05, 2025

Back in 2008, I made the boldest bet of my career: I built two luxury spec mansions in Toronto. Full-throttle, ultra-finished, ego-fueled dream homes. Think heated driveways, coffered ceilings, imported marble, and appliances worth more than most cars. I was all-in.

The timing? Couldn’t have been worse.

Right as I put the finishing touches on both homes, the global financial system collapsed. Buyers vanished. Credit disappeared. And just like that, I lost everything. Not just the houses — everything. Years of work, reputation, and capital — gone in a flash.

So, when I see the Bank of Canada look directly at a faltering economy and still decide to pause rate cuts — after months of easing — it hits a little too close to home.

Because I’ve seen what happens when decision-makers wait just a little too long.

🛑 The Rate Decision That Wasn't

This week, the Bank of Canada held its benchmark rate steady. No hike. No cut. Just a pause.

After a series of rate cuts and a noticeable shift toward easing, many expected the trend to continue — especially with inflation softening and signs of consumer weakness everywhere you look.

But the BoC tapped the brakes.

Why?

Because last week’s GDP numbers showed a bit of unexpected growth — and that gave Governor Tiff Macklem just enough cover to say, “Let’s see how this plays out.”

But here’s the catch: that GDP growth? It’s fake.

Well, not fake — but definitely misleading.

The growth wasn’t driven by new economic momentum. It was a front-loaded spike in activity, caused by businesses scrambling to stockpile goods ahead of looming tariffs. Demand didn’t grow — it got pulled forward.

So now we’re looking at a sugar high — not sustainable energy. And the BoC is acting like it just discovered a new bull market in productivity.

📉 This Isn’t Prudence. It’s Paralysis.

Let’s be honest about what’s really happening out there:

Unemployment is rising.
Household debt is at historic highs.
Loan delinquencies are creeping up.
Personal and corporate bankruptcies are accelerating.
The real estate market is slow, stale, and in some places, sliding.

If the Bank had cut 25 basis points this week, no one credible would’ve criticized it. In fact, a lot of people — in construction, retail, housing, and beyond — were hoping for it.

Instead, we got a pause based on temporary data.

It’s like refusing to turn on the heat in February because you had one sunny day last week.

🏗️ What It Means on the Ground

In real estate, we don’t live in headlines. We live in timelines. Long ones.

Interest rate policy today shapes project viability for the next 3–5 years. Land acquisition, design, zoning, financing, presales — all of it depends on confidence, cost of capital, and consumer psychology.

Right now, that confidence is cracking.

Buyers are uncertain.
Lenders are cautious.
Partners are risk-averse.
And even the best-laid projects are being pushed back, renegotiated, or mothballed.

This is how slowdowns become full-blown stalls.

🔮 What Comes Next?

Here’s what’s likely:

We’ll see more cuts — maybe two before the end of the year. Not because the data shifts dramatically, but because the consequences of inaction will become too painful to ignore.

Once the artificial GDP boost fades — and it will — we’ll be left with the real story:

Weak spending
Soft hiring
Growing defaults
Diminished investment

And then, the Bank will move again. Not out of foresight, but necessity.

🐢 This Time Feels Different

People keep asking if this is like 2008. It’s not.

2008 was violent.
Markets crashed fast. Panic was immediate. But then, surprisingly, we bounced back stronger than ever. Central banks moved aggressively, governments injected liquidity, and asset prices came roaring back.

This?

This is slower.
It’s a grind.
And it’s messing with people’s heads.

There’s no single “event” to react to — just a constant drip of layoffs, price fatigue, buyer apathy, and tightening credit. No one’s screaming, but no one’s moving either. It’s like we’re all waiting for something to break, but it never quite does.

And now, just as we probably need to pause, reflect, and give the system time to catch up — we’re adding another 800,000 immigrants this year. Right after one of the most aggressive surges in our country’s history.

Instead of consolidating and assimilating, we’re doubling down on growth — even when the system clearly can’t handle it.

Does that mean we’re nearing the bottom?
Maybe.

Maybe this is the final stretch of pain before something resets.
Or maybe we’re just spreading the misery a little further and a little thinner.

Either way — if you’re waiting for a moment that feels like 2008 again, stop.
This one is a different beast.

✍️ Final Word

The lesson I learned in 2008 wasn’t just about bad timing — it was about believing the system would self-correct.

Back then, things broke fast. And then they got fixed — fast. The banks panicked, the governments acted, and we all moved on, bruised but better.

This time is different.

There’s no big collapse. Just a slow, steady suffocation of momentum. Confidence bleeding out one decision at a time. And the people in charge? They’re still waiting for some clean signal that never comes.

That’s why I don’t trust the pause.

Not because I’m expecting the sky to fall. But because I’ve seen how dangerous it is to stand still when the ground is already shifting.

If you’re waiting for a crash, you’ll miss what’s already happening.

This isn’t about reacting to disaster.
It’s about navigating decay — with eyes open and boots moving.

— Darryl