Only 42 New Condo Sales in Toronto. That’s Not Good. That's Not Good at all.
Let me take you back to the good old days of Toronto condo launches.
It was 2016. I’d just put together a mid-rise project near Yonge and Eglinton. We rolled out the velvet ropes for the broker launch. I’m talking:
A line down the block before doors opened
Mortgage brokers waving bank drafts like they were concert tickets
Agents fighting over allocations like shoppers on Black Friday
Units selling out in three hours at prices nobody thought possible
I’ll never forget a broker who, after getting shut out of his fifth client’s unit choice, turned to me and said:
“Listen, can you at least give me something? My guy will buy a storage locker if that’s all you’ve got left.”
That was the Toronto pre-construction market. Pure mania.
Fast forward to today… and we’re looking at only 42 new condo sales in the entire city last month.
Let that sink in for a second.
Forty-Two. Seriously.
Not 420.
Not 4,200.
Forty. Two.
In a city of nearly 3 million people, in one of North America’s hottest urban real estate markets—we sold fewer condos than seats in a high school classroom.
It’s the kind of number that makes even seasoned developers break out in cold sweats.
From Feeding Frenzy to Buyer Freeze
So how the hell did we go from lineups and brawls over units to… this?
Interest Rates: Party’s Over
5-year fixed mortgage rates are now north of 5%.
Monthly carrying costs on a 500 SF condo look like the payments on a BMW M3.
Investors—who once gobbled up pre-con units like free samples at Costco—have vanished.
Pre-Construction Prices Still Living in 2021
Developers are clinging to price points around $1,400–$1,800 per square foot in the core. But buyers aren’t biting.
End-users can’t afford it.
Investors can’t make rent cover the payments.
Foreign buyers are banned entirely. And let’s face it—that used to be a significant piece of the puzzle in certain segments of the market.
Reality check: The old pricing math simply doesn’t work anymore.
Inventory Piling Up Like Snow in February
Let’s talk about the elephant in the room: unsold inventory.
Over 22,000 unsold new condo units are sitting in the pipeline right now.
Under normal conditions, that’s 2-3 years of supply.
At 42 sales per month… well, do the math. We’ll be lucky to sell it off before my hairline disappears completely.
Immigration Is Important… But It’s Not Magic
Look, I’ll be blunt: I’m not thrilled with the type of immigration Canada is prioritizing right now. Toronto is built on immigration—that’s a fact. But in the past, we brought in people ready to work, build businesses, buy homes, and put down real roots.
These days, we’re bringing in huge numbers of students and temporary workers who are often underpaid, crammed into rentals, and nowhere close to affording a $1,500-per-square-foot condo downtown.
That’s not the kind of buyer who’s going to rescue the pre-construction market.
Meanwhile, development charges keep rising, red tape keeps tangling, and builders are stuck between a rock and a hard place.
Developers on the Edge
I’ve been through a few cycles. I built two luxury houses in 2008 right before the market crashed—and lost my shirt. So I know what it feels like when the music stops.
Right now, a lot of developers are stuck:
Land purchased at peak pricing.
Land loans carrying double-digit interest rates.
Lenders getting anxious.
Launches forced just to try to raise deposits and keep projects alive.
And no one wants to be the first developer to drop prices. Because that’s blood in the water—and nobody wants to be shark bait.
Why This Is So Bad
Let me put it as bluntly as possible:
42 sales is catastrophic.
It’s not a “slow month.”
It’s not a “market pause.”
It’s a full-blown freeze.
At this pace:
More launches will be delayed—or cancelled.
Construction jobs will vanish as fewer projects break ground.
Future supply will dry up… creating another housing crunch when demand returns.
What’s Next?
Here’s my veteran developer’s take:
Prices will have to adjust. No way around it.
Construction will slow dramatically. That’s bad for jobs and future supply.
Distressed opportunities will emerge. The developers who survive this storm will feast on discounted sites.
Because the market will recover eventually. Toronto’s too big, too desirable, and too land-constrained for it not to. But we’re in for some serious pain first.
The Bottom Line
Forty-two sales in a city like Toronto is a screaming alarm bell.
Buyers: you might get better deals if you wait—but be careful what you wish for.
Investors: sharpen those spreadsheets and check your rents twice.
Developers: keep the faith… and keep your lenders close.
I’ve seen this movie before. The plot always gets ugly before the sequel makes everyone rich again.
Until then, stay safe out there—and don’t book any DJs for your launch events just yet.