Let me walk you through a real conversation I had this week. I was on a call with the appraiser for one of my sites—let’s call him “Bob,” although I’m pretty sure he was just copying and pasting the same report he’s been using since 1997.
I had just submitted a stack of documents:
My APS
Updated site plan approval
Construction budget
Comparable land and resales
A recent LOI from someone who wanted to “do me a favour” and “take the site off my hands”
And, just for good measure, a sacrificial offering to the gods of zoning: a suitcase stuffed with consultant invoices, development charges, application fees, and parkland dedication cash—all set ablaze in a ceremonial fire fuelled by interest carry and broken promises, while a purple-haired, Lululemon-wearing, local-coffee-only planner chanted the official mantra: “We’re still reviewing.”
Bob opens with:
“So… you paid $X last year for the land?”
Here we go.
I explain:
“Yes. But since then, I rezoned it, got more density, assembled the neighbor, and prepped it for luxury product. This isn’t the same asset anymore. It’s evolved.”
Bob replies with the tone of a man explaining gravity to a toddler:
“But we can’t value it based on what might happen…”
“No no,” I said, massaging my temples. “It’s not might. It has happened. The approvals are in. The zoning is done. The building exists on paper and has consultants billing me monthly. The only thing left is your signature.”
And then Bob drops the hammer:
“We really like to work off of closed transactions.”
Oh do you? Closed transactions? In a market with fewer land sales than honest politicians? I offered him comps from nearby. “Not similar enough.” I showed him pro formas with confirmed buyer interest. “Too speculative.” I provided an LOI at a premium price. “Not binding.”
When Value Doesn’t Count Unless It’s in a Dead Deal
Here’s where things go off the rails.
I show the appraiser everything I’ve done to increase the value of the site: ✅ Rezoning approved ✅ Site assembled ✅ Architectural plans done ✅ LOI from a buyer at a higher valuation ✅ Pro forma backed by real broker pricing
His response?
“We don’t value based on future potential.”
Future potential? It’s already happened. The rezoning is stamped. The site plan is done. This isn’t a vision board, it’s a development-ready property.
So I push harder:
“Here’s an LOI from a buyer offering $30M. He toured the site. He’s serious.”
And he says:
“But it’s not a firm sale. We can’t rely on that.”
Okay, fine.
“What about the comps I gave you down the street? Same zoning, same frontage, same price per square foot.”
He says:
“Not recent enough. And that site had slightly different conditions.”
At this point I’m wondering if anything matters besides three magical sales of identical sites that happened last week, within a 200-metre radius, on a full moon, witnessed by a unicorn.
It doesn’t matter how much value I create. It doesn’t matter what buyers are willing to pay. If the appraiser can’t find a “safe” comp that fits neatly into a report, he won’t touch it.
It’s not about what it’s worth. It’s about what he can defend if someone questions him later.
Real Story, Real Pain
Years ago, after my first rezoning, I proudly brought my file to a lender—back when I thought experience mattered and everyone read my reports.
They asked for an appraisal.
Appraiser comes in. Doesn’t look at the elevation. Doesn’t ask about the site assembly. Just nods politely and leaves.
Appraisal comes back lower than what I paid before I got approvals.
I call the guy. I’m baffled.
“Well, the market’s uncertain, and we want to be conservative…”
And that was the moment I realized the appraisal industry doesn’t reward accuracy. It rewards defensibility.
So I started budgeting for that. I now factor in the appraisal discount—like a tax for trying to create value.
Let’s Just Be Honest: AI Would Do a Better Job
Look, I’m no AI cheerleader, but let’s be real.
An AI trained on:
Every land sale
Every zoning change
Development charges
Interest rates
Construction costs
Buyer trends
MLS resale data
Planning applications
Environmental restrictions
Tribunal precedents
…could give you a valuation in 8 seconds that’s more accurate, more current, and less afraid of its own shadow than the stuff we’re getting from these “experts.”
AI wouldn’t pretend that a fully approved midtown Toronto site is worth the same as a teardown on the edge of town.
AI wouldn’t ignore a $30M offer and say, “That might have been emotional.”
AI wouldn’t spend half the report reciting the dictionary definition of “market value” like we’re in grade school.
Until Then, We Suffer
If you’re an appraiser reading this, here’s what I want you to know:
I understand your job isn’t easy.
But when the developer knows more about the comps than you do, we’ve got a problem.
Give me an AI that understands zoning, land value, and what it actually costs to build in this city—and I’ll take it over “Bob” every day of the week.
Until then, I’ll keep talking in circles to a deaf wall. But I won’t pretend it’s a conversation.
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