We Built It… They Didn’t Come

WTF, Field of Dreams? You Lied.

Jun 10, 2025

I remember walking into a Metro grocery store during the early pandemic. Shelves were empty, but there was one aisle that was fully stocked—canned sardines. Wall to wall. Nobody wanted them. Too salty, too small, no protein-to-price logic. That’s what the Toronto condo market feels like right now. It’s sardines, everywhere.

Only this time, it’s not $1.49 a tin. It’s $1,300 a foot.

The Pile-Up Is Real

Let’s not sugarcoat it: the GTA’s housing market has crossed a historic threshold. As of May 2025:

Active MLS listings have officially surpassed 30,000.
That’s 42% higher than last year.
It’s the most inventory we’ve had since 1995.

And that’s just resale inventory. It doesn’t even include the 23,918 unsold new condos developers are sitting on—broken down into:

10,934 in pre-construction
11,073 under construction
1,911 completed and sitting vacant

Seventy-eight months of supply. That’s six and a half years. You could enroll in med school and finish your residency before this clears.

This Isn’t Just a Cycle. It’s a Logjam.

The last time we had inventory like this, the Raptors were still playing in the SkyDome. But the real twist is this: no one is slashing prices. The average new unit? Still floating around $1,339 per square foot. Down 2% year over year. That’s it.

Why? Because every developer has already mortgaged their soul to the lender and committed to pro formas based on 2021 math. Dropping prices now means default, margin calls, and capital calls. It’s a standoff. A stale mate. Everyone is praying someone else blinks first.

The Projects Are Frozen. The Pipes Are Full.

Developers have already started pulling the chute. Urbanation reports 60 condo projects—21,505 units—have been put on ice. Quietly. Silently. No one’s making a press release about that.

And here’s the kicker: some of those units are technically “sold.” But what does “sold” mean when the buyer’s gone AWOL, the assignment market is dead, and construction hasn’t even started?

Spoiler alert: it means nothing.

From the Ground Floor: A Developer’s Reality Check

Yesterday, I was on a call with a planner, while reviewing a geotech report, while fielding a lender’s email asking why our comparables are three months old. Meanwhile, the MLS data was staring at me like a disappointed parent. Every stat screaming: nobody’s buying, everyone’s listing.

And I still had to approve mechanical specs for One Thelma Avenue.

This is what it’s like out here. This is what oversupply feels like when you’re leveraged, tired, and watching your cost consultants “reconfirm” that $650 a foot is now “conservative.”

Final Thought: We’re Not Building. We’re Waiting.

Here’s the uncomfortable truth: we are not building the next wave. We are digesting the last one.

This isn’t a pullback—it’s a multi-year detox.

We built too much of the wrong thing for the wrong buyer at the wrong time. And now, with interest rates sticky, rents flattening, and immigration slowing, the hangover is here. The question isn’t whether we rebound. It’s whether we adapt before the market forces us to.