Why The F*ck Are Toronto’s Wealthiest Buying Homes Right Now?

I once lost everything building two mansions in 2008.

Not figuratively. Not “I felt like I lost everything.” I actually lost everything.

Two stone-clad monsters in prime Toronto—fully specced, chef kitchens, radiant floors, and the most unbelievable double-station, gigantic steamer showers you've ever seen. I built them like I was going to live there forever. Then the market crashed faster than a startup with a $4M burn and no revenue.

Buyers vanished. Banks panicked. My equity? Poof.

So when I say I know the luxury market, I’m not flexing. I’m showing my scar tissue.

Fast-forward to 2025—and guess what?

The ultra-luxury market is booming again. But only for the brave.

According to Sotheby’s, sales of homes over $10 million in the GTA are up 200% this year. That’s not a typo. While $1M condos are sitting on MLS like $14 Bud Lights at a Blue Jays game when they're already down 7-2, the ultra-wealthy are writing cheques for eight-figure estates like it’s 2021 all over again.

And here’s the kicker: they’re all local buyers.

No foreign investors. No mystery Hong Kong money. Just good ol’ domestic rich people with bold taste and better timing.

Why? Because they’ve seen this movie before. And they know that when markets are “chaotic,” that’s actually code for “discounted.”

Enter Forest Hill and the Bridle Path…

Let me bring it back to the ground—literally.

I’ve got two active developments right in the heart of Toronto’s ultra-luxury transformation:

1 Thelma Avenue

• 1 Thelma Avenue, Forest Hill – a boutique luxury condo tucked between legacy estates and generational wealth. A true Forest Hill classic, now reimagined for modern downsizers and discerning locals looking to live in Toronto's new premiere, exclusive, hotel-style residence. This property will be known as the best address to live at in Toronto.

2470 Bayview Avenue

• 2470 Bayview Avenue, in the heart of the Bridle Path – not adjacent, not nearby, in it. This isn’t just luxury—it’s New York–style, hotel-style luxury: a purpose-built rental with full 24-hour valet, concierge, and porter service. Two parking spots per unit. Private, elegant, effortless. For those who want the lifestyle of a Four Seasons penthouse without ever worrying about leaky roofs, surprise boiler bills, or who's trimming the boxwoods. And if that’s not enough—yes, there will be a turnstile door entry. The kind you see at iconic New York buildings, where the experience begins before you even step inside.

This isn’t fantasy. It’s fully designed. Approved. And it’s what people actually want when they say, “I’m done with maintenance, but I’m not done with quality.”

Lessons from the $10M Crowd

1. Quality sells, even in chaos. These aren’t spec homes with vinyl siding. They’re architectural statements. Limestone, millwork, integrated everything. That’s the playbook at Thelma and Bayview.

2. Scarcity is still king. There are only so many Rosedales, Bridle Paths, Forest Hills. Try getting site assembly done in those neighborhoods. Now try doing it without getting sued or blocked by the local Ratepayer Sith Lords.

3. Off-market is the new MLS. Of the 12 homes sold over $10M this year, most never hit Realtor.ca. Welcome to the whisper network. In this world, relationships beat SEO.

Meanwhile, in Condo Land…

Let’s not kid ourselves. The $1M+ condo market is hurting. Down 29%. Sales have slowed, buyers are skittish, and developers are wondering if they should pivot to building arcades and pickleball clubs instead.

And yet—the actual end-users still need homes. Downsizers. Professionals. People who don’t want to raise three kids in a 2-bed plus den with a view of the garbage chute.

That’s where smart infill and curated product—like what we’re designing at Bayview—comes in. You can’t mass-market your way out of this. You have to design your way out.

Final Thoughts from the Assembly Line

Markets cycle. Always have, always will.

What’s different this time is who’s moving. The middle is frozen. The top? They’re pouncing. That should tell you everything you need to know.

We’re entering a “new normal” in Toronto real estate—but for developers like me who’ve been through the fires, it’s the same old playbook: Buy when it’s quiet, build something real, and sell when everyone else wakes up.

If you're watching from the sidelines, that's fine.

But don’t say I didn’t tell you—this is when the next fortunes are made.

Stay tuned.
I’m moving this blog from Substack to Shrubs.me. Over the next few weeks, please be ready to follow me over there. On Thursday, you’ll get an invite from Shrubs.me—just know it's really from me—so you can continue following this journey uninterrupted.

Thank you all for your incredible support so far. I love you. Truly.