Zoning Policy's Trojan Horse

And the times, they are a changin'

As rates continue to go up and up and up and the market braces itself for impact I can't help but feel like we have reached a boiling point. I feel like regular people are starting to act crazier and I can tell you for certain that the people on Twitter are acting crazier than normal and I feel like I can feel the fear out there.

Maybe it's just me, but I don't think so. I am a bit scared at the moment. I can tell you that personally I am worried about having to renew my mortgage in 14 months.

Originally I was pissed off when most around me were getting variable rate mortgages at 1.5% - 2% while I was locking in at 2.99% because of my self employed status and “lack” of regular income. The lenders made it almost impossible for me. After a few months I started to feel like I was a genius. Then after a few more I was more of a genius. Now I am pissed off that I didn’t lock in for longer.

I can tell you that I have friends who have been extremely used to a free flowing Wild party life for the last few years who are now taking on side hustles for the first time since I’ve known them. This makes me very nervous.

I have the fortunate proximity through bloodlines of my wife's on the pulse of the furniture retail Market. The retail Furniture Market is a wonderful leading indicator. Its one of the first spigots that turns off and its one of the first spigots that turns back on. Trust me I have been watching this for over 15 years. Especially stores focused on the lower to lower middle end of the price point spectrum. Its times like this that their clientele disappears instantly from the scene because the last thing that they need right now is a new sofa. Oh and buy the way, its a bit harder to finance now at 0.1% over 4 years.

I know for a fact that most furniture stores are bracing for impact. A giant impact. It will be interesting to see what happens with layoffs in the retail sector going into what is supposed to be the busiest season of the year coming up now.

“The sofas fine my love. We can get a new one when things settle down. We still need to buy everyone holiday presents and I still like food and heat.”

“I knew I should have married Mark Morris.”

With the new legislation that the provincial level of government is trying very hard to push through Parliament, I can't help but feel excited that a change in the mentality towards development and more importantly incentivizing developers to develop is just around the corner. I now believe that we may actually have a chance at some point in the future.

I've have also come to realize that laneway houses or Garden suites or additional legal as of right units in the so-called “yellow belt” or neighborhood designation in the city of Toronto's official plan has helped us to finally brake through the extraordinarily protectionist barrier of the “Yellow Belt”, and with that piercing of The Shield of this layer of policy we will now see the doors open to an easing on density and hopefully angular planes in areas that for decades would strictly prohibit this potential growth.

And through the wreckage of the real estate market especially in Toronto and Vancouver over the next few months we should see some inventive exciting and different ways to bring more great housing into stock in Canada.

More good news is that lumber and steel rebar pricing seem to be in a downward trend at the moment as well, which will further help to incentivize the developers to get started again. My gut is telling me that construction costs for materials and labour are about to come off considerably in the next few months.

Here’s hoping.